Leha halofo ea bobeli ea 2021, lik'hamphani tse ling tsa likoloi li bontšitse hore bothata ba khaello ea li-chip ka 2022 bo tla ntlafatsoa, empa li-OEM li ekelitse theko le mohopolo oa papali hammoho, hammoho le phepelo ea matla a tlhahiso ea li-chip tsa boemo bo holimo. Likhoebo li ntse li le mothating oa ho holisa bokhoni ba tlhahiso, mme 'maraka oa hajoale oa lefats'e o ntse o angoa haholo ke khaello ea li-cores.
Ka nako e ts'oanang, ka phetoho e potlakileng ea indasteri ea likoloi ho ea ho kemiso ea motlakase le bohlale, letoto la liindasteri la phepelo ea li-chip le lona le tla ba le liphetoho tse kholo.
1. Bohloko ba MCU tlas'a khaello ea mantlha
Joale ha re hetla morao khaellong ea li-cores tse qalileng qetellong ea 2020, ha ho pelaelo hore seoa sena ke sesosa se ka sehloohong sa ho se leka-lekane lipakeng tsa phepelo le tlhoko ea lichifi tsa likoloi. Leha tlhahlobo e matla ea sebopeho sa ts'ebeliso ea li-chips tsa MCU (microcontroller) ea lefats'e e bonts'a hore ho tloha ka 2019 ho isa ho 2020, kabo ea li-MCUs lits'ebetsong tsa elektroniki tsa likoloi e tla nka 33% ea 'maraka oa likopo tse tlase, empa ha e bapisoa le ofisi e hole ea inthanete Ho fihlela holimo. baqapi ba li-chip ba amehile, likhamphani tsa li-chip le ho paka le ho etsa liteko li anngoe haholo ke litaba tse kang ho koaloa ha seoa sena.
Limela tsa tlhahiso ea li-chips tsa liindasteri tse matla haholo li tla ba le khaello e matla ea basebetsi le ts'ebetso e mpe ea lichelete ka 2020. Kamora hore moralo oa chip o fetohe litlhoko tsa lik'hamphani tsa likoloi, ha o so khone ho hlophisa tlhahiso ka botlalo, e leng ho etsang hore ho be thata. hore li-chips li tlisoe ka botlalo. Matsohong a fektheri ea koloi, boemo ba bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea likoloi bo sa lekaneng bo hlaha.
Ka Phato selemong se fetileng, semela sa Muar sa STMicroelectronics se Muar, Malaysia se ile sa qobelloa ho koala lifeme tse ling ka lebaka la phello ea seoa se secha sa moqhaka, mme ho koaloa ka kotloloho ho ile ha lebisa phepelong ea li-chips bakeng sa Bosch ESP/IPB, VCU, TCU le. litsamaiso tse ling ho ba boemong ba tšitiso ea phepelo nako e telele.
Ho feta moo, ka 2021, likoluoa tsa tlhaho tse tsamaeang le tsona tse kang litšisinyeho tsa lefatše le mello le tsona li tla etsa hore bahlahisi ba bang ba se ke ba khona ho hlahisa ka nako e khutšoanyane. Ka Hlakola selemong se fetileng, tšisinyeho ea lefatše e ile ea baka tšenyo e khōlō ho Renesas Electronics ea Japane, e leng e ’ngoe ea lik’hamphani tse ka sehloohong tse fanang ka li-chip lefatšeng.
Kahlolo e fosahetseng ea tlhoko ea lichifi tsa likoloi ke lik'hamphani tsa makoloi, hammoho le taba ea hore masela a holimo a fetotse matla a tlhahiso ea lichifi tsa koloing hore e be li-chips tsa bareki e le ho netefatsa theko ea thepa, e entse hore MCU le. CIS e nang le kamano e phahameng ka ho fetesisa lipakeng tsa lichifi tsa likoloi le lihlahisoa tse tloaelehileng tsa elektroniki. (sensara ea setšoantšo sa CMOS) e haella haholo.
Ho latela pono ea tekheniki, bonyane ho na le mefuta e 40 ea lisebelisoa tsa setso tsa likoloi tsa semiconductor, 'me palo eohle ea libaesekele tse sebelisoang ke 500-600, e kenyelletsang haholo MCU, li-semiconductors tsa motlakase (IGBT, MOSFET, joalo-joalo), li-sensor le tse fapaneng. lisebelisoa tsa analog. Likoloi tse ikemetseng le tsona Ho tla sebelisoa letoto la lihlahisoa tse kang li-chips tse thusang tsa ADAS, CIS, AI processors, lidars, li-radar tsa millimeter-wave le MEMS.
Ho ea ka palo ea tlhokahalo ea likoloi, e amehang ka ho fetisisa bothateng bona ba khaello ea mantlha ke hore koloi ea setso e hloka li-chips tsa MCU tse fetang 70, 'me MCU ea likoloi ke ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) le ECU (Likarolo tse ka sehloohong tsa chip ea taolo ea koloi. ). Ho nka lebaka le ka sehloohong la ho theoha ha Haval H6 e fanoeng ke Great Wall ka makhetlo a mangata ho tloha selemong se fetileng e le mohlala, Great Wall e boletse hore ho fokotseha ho hoholo ha thekiso ea H6 ka likhoeli tse ngata ho ne ho bakoa ke phepelo e sa lekaneng ea Bosch ESP eo e e sebelisitseng. Euler Black Cat e neng e tumme pele le White Cat le tsona li phatlalalitse ho emisoa ha nakoana ha tlhahiso ka Hlakubele selemong sena ka lebaka la litaba tse kang ho fokotsa phepelo ea ESP le ho eketseha ha theko ea chip.
Ka masoabi, leha lifeme tsa li-auto chip li ntse li haha le ho nolofalletsa likhoele tse ncha tsa tlhahiso ea li-wafer ka 2021, 'me li leka ho fetisetsa ts'ebetso ea lichifi tsa likoloi moleng oa khale oa tlhahiso le mohala o mocha oa tlhahiso ea li-inch tse 12 nakong e tlang, molemong oa ho eketsa bokhoni ba tlhahiso. fumana moruo oa tekanyo, Leha ho le joalo, potoloho ea phano ea lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor hangata e feta halofo ea selemo. Ntle le moo, ho nka nako e telele bakeng sa tokiso ea mohala oa tlhahiso, netefatso ea sehlahisoa le ntlafatso ea bokhoni ba tlhahiso, e leng se etsang hore matla a macha a tlhahiso a atlehe ho sebetsa ka 2023-2024. .
Ke habohlokoa ho bolela hore le hoja khatello e nkile nako e telele, lik'hamphani tsa likoloi li ntse li na le tšepo ka 'maraka. 'Me bokhoni bo bocha ba tlhahiso ea li-chip bo reretsoe ho rarolla bothata bo boholo ba hona joale ba tlhahiso ea li-chip nakong e tlang.
2. Sebaka se secha sa ntoa tlas'a bohlale ba motlakase
Leha ho le joalo, bakeng sa indasteri ea likoloi, tharollo ea bothata ba hona joale ba chip e ka rarolla tlhokahalo e potlakileng ea phepelo ea 'maraka ea hajoale le tlhokahalo ea asymmetry. Ha ho tobane le phetoho ea liindasteri tsa motlakase le tse bohlale, khatello ea phepelo ea lichifi tsa likoloi e tla eketseha haholo nakong e tlang.
Ka tlhokahalo e ntseng e eketseha ea taolo e kopanetsoeng ea likoloi tsa lihlahisoa tsa motlakase, 'me nakong ea ntlafatso ea FOTA le ho khanna ka mokhoa o itekanetseng, palo ea li-chips bakeng sa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla e ntlafalitsoe ho tloha 500-600 mehleng ea likoloi tsa mafura ho ea ho 1,000 ho ea ho 1,200. Palo ea mefuta e boetse e eketsehile ho tloha ho 40 ho ea ho 150.
Litsebi tse ling tsa indasteri ea likoloi li boletse hore lefapheng la likoloi tsa motlakase tse bohlale nakong e tlang, palo ea li-chips tsa koloi e le 'ngoe e tla eketseha ka makhetlo a mangata ho feta likotoana tsa 3,000, le karolo ea li-semiconductors tsa likoloi ka theko ea thepa. koloi eohle e tla eketseha ho tloha 4% ka 2019 ho 12 ka 2025. %, 'me e ka nyolohela ho 20% ka 2030. Sena ha se feela ho bolela hore mehleng ea bohlale ba motlakase, tlhoko ea li-chips ea likoloi e ntse e eketseha, empa e boetse e bonts'a ho phahama ka sekhahla ha bothata ba tekheniki le theko ea li-chips tse hlokahalang bakeng sa likoloi.
Ho fapana le li-OEM tsa setso, moo 70% ea li-chips tsa likoloi tsa mafura e leng 40-45nm le 25% e le li-chips tse tlase kaholimo ho 45nm, karolo ea li-chips ts'ebetsong ea 40-45nm bakeng sa likoloi tsa motlakase tse tloaelehileng le tse phahameng 'marakeng li na le. e theohetse ho 25%. 45%, athe karolo ea lichifi tse kaholimo ho 45nm ke 5% feela. Ho latela pono ea tekheniki, li-chips tsa maemo a holimo tse tlase ho 40nm le 10nm le 7nm process chips ha ho pelaelo hore ke libaka tse ncha tsa tlholisano mehleng e ncha ea indasteri ea likoloi.
Ho latela tlaleho ea lipatlisiso e phatlalalitsoeng ke Hushan Capital ka selemo sa 2019, palo ea li-semiconductors tsa motlakase koloing eohle e eketsehile ka potlako ho tloha ho 21% nakong ea likoloi tsa mafura ho ea ho 55%, ha li-chips tsa MCU li theohile ho tloha ho 23% ho ea ho 11%.
Leha ho le joalo, matla a ntseng a eketseha a tlhahiso ea li-chip a senotsoeng ke bahlahisi ba fapaneng a ntse a lekantsoe haholo ho li-chips tsa setso tsa MCU hajoale tse ikarabellang bakeng sa taolo ea enjene/chassis/'mele.
Bakeng sa likoloi tse bohlale tsa motlakase, li-chip tsa AI tse ikarabellang bakeng sa maikutlo a ho khanna a ikemetseng le ho kopanya; li-module tsa matla tse kang IGBT (insulated heke dual transistor) e ikarabellang bakeng sa ho fetola matla; li-sensor chips bakeng sa ho lekola radar e ikemetseng li eketsehile haholo tlhoko. E ka 'na ea e-ba bothata bo bocha ba "khaello ea mantlha" eo lik'hamphani tsa likoloi li tla tobana le tsona mohatong o latelang.
Leha ho le joalo, sethaleng se secha, se sitisang lik'hamphani tsa koloi e ka 'na ea se ke ea e-ba bothata ba bokhoni ba tlhahiso bo sitisoa ke lintlha tse ka ntle, empa "molala o khomaretsoeng" oa chip o thibetsoe ke lehlakore la theknoloji.
Ho nka tlhokahalo ea lichifi tsa AI tse tlisoang ke bohlale e le mohlala, palo ea komporo ea software ea ho khanna e ikemetseng e se e fihlile boemong ba TOPS ea linomoro tse peli (ts'ebetso ea libilione ka motsotsoana), mme matla a komporo a li-MCU tsa likoloi tsa setso ha a khone ho fihlela litlhoko tsa khomphutha. ea likoloi tse ikemetseng. Li-chips tsa AI tse kang GPUs, FPGAs, le ASICs li kene 'marakeng oa likoloi.
Halofo ea pele ea selemo se fetileng, Horizon e phatlalalitse ka molao hore sehlahisoa sa eona sa likoloi tsa moloko oa boraro, li-chips tsa Journey 5, li lokollotsoe ka molao. Ho latela lintlha tsa semmuso, li-chips tsa Journey 5 li na le matla a komporo a 96TOPS, tšebeliso ea matla ea 20W, le tekanyo ea matla a 4.8TOPS/W. . Ha ho bapisoa le theknoloji ea ts'ebetso ea 16nm ea chip ea FSD (mosebetsi o ikemetseng oa ho khanna) o lokollotsoeng ke Tesla ka 2019, liparamente tsa chip e le 'ngoe e nang le matla a komporo ea 72TOPS, tšebeliso ea matla ea 36W le karolelano ea matla a 2TOPS/W e ntlafalitsoe haholo. Katleho ena e boetse e hapile mohau le tšebelisano-'moho ea lik'hamphani tse ngata tsa likoloi ho kenyelletsa SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, le Ideal.
E susumetsoa ke bohlale, ts'ebetso ea indasteri e bile e potlakileng haholo. Ho qala ho tloha FSD ea Tesla, nts'etsopele ea li-chips tsa mantlha tsa AI e tšoana le ho bula lebokose la Pandora. Nakoana ka mor'a Leeto la 5, NVIDIA e ile ea lokolla ka potlako chip ea Orin e tla ba single-chip. Matla a komporo a nyolohetse ho 254TOPS. Mabapi le mehloli ea botekgeniki, Nvidia o bile a bona chip ea Atlan SoC e nang le matla a le mong a khomphutha a fihlang ho 1000TOPS bakeng sa sechaba selemong se fetileng. Hajoale, NVIDIA e lula e le maemong a ikemetseng 'marakeng oa GPU oa li-chips tsa taolo ea likoloi, e boloka karolo ea mmaraka ea 70% selemo ho pota.
Leha ho kena ha seqhenqha sa mohala oa thekeng oa Huawei indastering ea likoloi ho hlahisitse maqhubu a tlholisano indastering ea li-chip tsa likoloi, hoa tsebahala hore tlasa tšitiso ea lintlha tsa kantle, Huawei o na le boiphihlelo bo bongata ba boqapi ts'ebetsong ea 7nm SoC, empa ha a khone. thusa bahlahisi ba holimo ba li-chip. papatso ea maraka.
Litsi tsa lipatlisiso li hakanya hore boleng ba libaesekele tsa AI chip bo nyoloha ka potlako ho tloha ho US $ 100 ka 2019 ho ea ho US $ 1,000+ ka 2025; ka nako e ts'oanang, 'maraka oa lehae oa AI chip oa likoloi o tla eketseha ho tloha ho US $ 900 milione ka 2019 ho ea ho 91 ka 2025. Lidolara tse limilione tse lekholo tsa US. Keketseho e potlakileng ea tlhoko ea 'maraka le taolo ea theknoloji ea lichifi tsa maemo a holimo ntle ho pelaelo e tla etsa hore tsoelo-pele e bohlale ea lik'hamphani tsa likoloi e be thata le ho feta.
Joalo ka tlhoko ea 'maraka oa AI chip, IGBT, joalo ka karolo ea bohlokoa ea semiconductor (ho kenyeletsoa li-chips, li-insulating substrates, li-terminals le lisebelisoa tse ling) koloing e ncha ea matla e nang le karo-karolelano ea litšenyehelo ho fihla ho 8-10%. tšusumetso e kholo ho nts'etsopele ea nako e tlang ea indasteri ea likoloi. Leha lik'hamphani tsa malapeng tse kang BYD, Star Semiconductor, le Silan Microelectronics li se li qalile ho fana ka li-IGBT bakeng sa lik'hamphani tsa likoloi tsa malapeng, hajoale, bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea IGBT ba lik'hamphani tse boletsoeng ka holimo bo ntse bo lekanyelitsoe ke boholo ba lik'hamphani, ho etsa hore ho be thata ho ho koahela mehloli ea matla a macha e ntseng e phahama ka potlako. kholo ea 'maraka.
Litaba tse monate ke hore ha ho tobane le mohato o latelang oa SiC ho nkela li-IGBT sebaka, lik'hamphani tsa China ha li saletse morao haholo ka moralo, 'me ho atolosoa ha moralo oa SiC le bokhoni ba tlhahiso ho ipapisitse le bokhoni ba IGBT R&D kapele kamoo ho ka khonehang ho lebeletsoe ho thusa lik'hamphani tsa likoloi le. mahlale. Baetsi ba fumana monyetla oa ho ba le maemo mothating o latelang oa tlholisano.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, tlhahiso ea mantlha e bohlale
Ha a tobane le khaello ea li-chips indastering ea likoloi, Yunyi o ikemiselitse ho rarolla bothata ba phepelo ea lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor bakeng sa bareki indastering ea likoloi. Haeba u batla ho tseba ka lisebelisoa tsa Yunyi Semiconductor mme u botse, ka kopo, tobetsa sehokelo:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Nako ea poso: Mar-25-2022